Ocean level rise or the big freeze on half the planet?

[T1 Terry]

Do you think it will be a slowly progressive type of thing that we will see coming, or will it be a big tsunami type event?
If an ice shelf eventually snaps off, that the boffins have concerns about, will it be days, weeks, months or years before we see a result ? Or will it be overnight and we'll just wake up one morning to find that we all drowned in our sleep?

The news will be all over the sudden increase in icebergs leaving Antartica because of the over crowding, caused by the hollow glaciers collapsing and sliding down the waterflow under them and out into the oceans.
Around the same time, the warm ocean currents heading up the Australian coast and across to the other side of the planet on the Atlantic currents, will have far too much fresh water mixing with the salt water and slow the ocean currents.
The slower ocean currents will result in the surface sea water getting hotter and hotter, melting ice even faster ..... Meanwhile, the other end of the Atlantic currents will start to get colder because the water is moving slower and not bringing the heat over that side ...... the oceans over that side will start to ice up ..... maybe the ice load on the other half of the planet will balance out the increase in fresh water added over this side ....

It will start out relatively slowly, like the rapid increasing in calving seen in the glacier over the last number of yrs and the receding glaciers, it will reach a point where the winter big freeze isn't near as big as it has been in yrs, and each yr it be seen as reducing even more .... till it stops freezing over during winter ....... Is there any of these signs happening now?

T1 Terry

[supersparky]

So, do you reckon that I don't need to wear swim fins and a snorkel any time soon then?

[T1 Terry]

So, do you reckon that I don't need to wear swim fins and a snorkel any time soon then?

Not unless you have a waterbed and sleep with your spurs still on

T1 Terry

[Greynomad]

It will likely start as a slow, creeping rise. It’s already risen about 10cm compared to 20 years ago.
Given that a humongous slab of the Antarctic ice shelf several kilometres long detached itself some years ago and got hung up on the ocean floor, but has now melted enough to break free and is heading for the Falklands area, as it alone melts it will add several hundred cubic kilometres of water to the oceans.
When you consider that it won’t be the only melting ice (read: ‘glaciers’, ‘the Arctic’), the sea level rise will probably accelerate.

[Noggins]

If an iceberg is floating it has already added to the water level.
It's only the land-bound ice that is going to, or has done already, make any difference.
To test this 3/4 fill a glass with water and add 2/3 ice blocks and carefully mark the water level.
Then when the ice has all melted observe the water level, did it stay the same ?
I was a doubter until I tested it for myself, but I did it with scotch and made myself wait till the ice had melted ( and then I drank the cold scotch ).

There are many theories about the antarctic ice melting and releasing ice pups,
The ice will drift northwards and slow the water currents, but the cold air flow heading towards Australia will reduce the land temperatures as the ice floes get further north, so places like Tazzie will become slightly colder while Cairns etc become warmer.
But as all this is conjecture and nothing can be proven with the current data, I just think that the children of today, adults in their own time, will have to learn to live on the planet that exists in their time, sorta like we have had to do


Ron

[supersparky]

So, do you reckon that I don't need to wear swim fins and a snorkel any time soon then?

Not unless you have a waterbed and sleep with your spurs still on

T1 Terry

I'll be right then. Haven't had a watered for nearly 40 years, and haven't worn spurs for maybe 45.

All this conjecture about rising sea levels is based on scientific fact apparently, but it seems to lean towards the political and or financial opinion of who actually commissioned the study. It's bloody hard to know what will really happen, you can't believe anyone from the gubment.

[T1 Terry]

Ice that is already in the water, in itself will not add to the sea level rise when it changes state between a solid and a liquid, but it does absorb a lot of heat energy to do the phase change. Once that heat energy is absorbed, the liquid will now expand as it absorbs more heat energy ..... the amount of expansion in in a glass full is not enough to really measure without capturing the condensation, but the level does not drop either, even with the droplets of water hanging from the plastic wrap, so that has to be counted in the actual area that the liquid takes up.
Multiply that by how many glasses of water are in the ocean, the area required to contain all that heated water must increase. The land around the ocean in most cases is a gentle slope to higher ground, the water over this piece of ground will heat faster because it is shallower .....

The air blowing off the ice theory doesn't hold up when you consider how hot it can get in Tassie, and on the mainland, yet all that ice is still there in Antartica, why isn't there a constant cold southerly wind?
If the air further away from sea level gets colder, why doesn't it fall to ground level when the hot air rises and pump all the heat from the surface out into space?

T1 Terry

[native pepper]

Ice that is already in the water, in itself will not add to the sea level rise when it changes state between a solid and a liquid, but it does absorb a lot of heat energy to do the phase change. Once that heat energy is absorbed, the liquid will now expand as it absorbs more heat energy ..... the amount of expansion in in a glass full is not enough to really measure without capturing the condensation, but the level does not drop either, even with the droplets of water hanging from the plastic wrap, so that has to be counted in the actual area that the liquid takes up.
Multiply that by how many glasses of water are in the ocean, the area required to contain all that heated water must increase. The land around the ocean in most cases is a gentle slope to higher ground, the water over this piece of ground will heat faster because it is shallower .....

The air blowing off the ice theory doesn't hold up when you consider how hot it can get in Tassie, and on the mainland, yet all that ice is still there in Antartica, why isn't there a constant cold southerly wind?
If the air further away from sea level gets colder, why doesn't it fall to ground level when the hot air rises and pump all the heat from the surface out into space?

T1 Terry

When the winds from the SSW to ESE, our weather is cool even in summer, but when a big high comes across Aus and pushes hot polluted air down on us, then it gets pretty hot stuffy and in summer can bring fires. A few days ago the wind was from the SW with crystal clear blue skies and temps didn't get over 14, next day a high came across and temps went into the 20's, the sky turned a dirty shade of brown as pollution from Aus invaded us.

[native pepper]

Do you think it will be a slowly progressive type of thing that we will see coming, or will it be a big tsunami type event?
If an ice shelf eventually snaps off, that the boffins have concerns about, will it be days, weeks, months or years before we see a result ? Or will it be overnight and we'll just wake up one morning to find that we all drowned in our sleep?

Don't think they know, they originally predicted it would happen next century, may not happen for years or decades and more than likely over a period of years. That's a lot of ice slipping into the sea and if it did happen suddenly it would probably make a big noise and a big wave. More than likely if it happened and reasonable speed we would see it each tide, just like we see the big spring tides down here where each tide gets higher and higher until it reaches its peak. But in this case the tides wouldn't recede, just get higher.

If it does happen soon, we may also see faster melting of other glaciers around the world melting as fast. Who knows, all we can do is guess until it actually happens and most of us probably won't be around to see the outcome. Wonder if they have reality TV in hell, then could watch it with all my friends.

...... on a giant screen that wrapped around .... or even those mask things they wear that projects it straight into your eyes ...... you are paralysed and can't rip it off or move to something you could use to dislodge it ..... and it ran 24/7 on never ending repeats ...... yeah, that would be hell alright .... if you wish that on your friends NP, I hope I never get on your bad side

T1 Terry

Don't have any enemies, they're all dead. None of my friends are religious, so not worried about a hell or anything else. You live you die and that's it.

[T1 Terry]

Ice that is already in the water, in itself will not add to the sea level rise when it changes state between a solid and a liquid, but it does absorb a lot of heat energy to do the phase change. Once that heat energy is absorbed, the liquid will now expand as it absorbs more heat energy ..... the amount of expansion in in a glass full is not enough to really measure without capturing the condensation, but the level does not drop either, even with the droplets of water hanging from the plastic wrap, so that has to be counted in the actual area that the liquid takes up.
Multiply that by how many glasses of water are in the ocean, the area required to contain all that heated water must increase. The land around the ocean in most cases is a gentle slope to higher ground, the water over this piece of ground will heat faster because it is shallower .....

The air blowing off the ice theory doesn't hold up when you consider how hot it can get in Tassie, and on the mainland, yet all that ice is still there in Antartica, why isn't there a constant cold southerly wind?
If the air further away from sea level gets colder, why doesn't it fall to ground level when the hot air rises and pump all the heat from the surface out into space?

T1 Terry

When the winds from the SSW to ESE, our weather is cool even in summer, but when a big high comes across Aus and pushes hot polluted air down on us, then it gets pretty hot stuffy and in summer can bring fires. A few days ago the wind was from the SW with crystal clear blue skies and temps didn't get over 14, next day a high came across and temps went into the 20's, the sky turned a dirty shade of brown as pollution from Aus invaded us.

The hotter things get, the more that will be the case. The dirty brown is the dust pulled high in the air by thermal updrafts. We don't have tornadoes like the US, but we still have them, they just don't make the news unless they wreck a populated area.
When I had the big bus in the workshed at Albion Park Rail, black leaves, not burnt due to the lack of oxygen, raining down from the Canberra fires, around 200kms as the crow flies, and had to have enough uplift to clear the mountains, those leaves rained down all the way out to the coast and where being washed up for days, the winds can carry heavy stuff for a long way, dust is much easier and even seen on the Antarctic ice, accelerating the melting because the ice reflection is lost ......

If the dust and other pollution can make it all the way to the Antarctic ice now, that puts pay to cooling winds from the ice being the prevailing weather conditions, more the very hot air heading for the cooler regions .....
If the northern hemisphere big freeze does happen, the cold air over the ice will remain where it is, the warm ocean currents are the drivers for wind currents, the land masses are just too far apart to create a wind that would blow from one continent to the other ..... rich Aussies will be buying vacation houses in Europe to cool off and go skiing etc, I doubt too many over that side will want to come and melt in the Aussie heat ....

T1 Terry